Speculations around Bitcoin $BTC due to imminent #BitcoinETF approval, or not

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Jared
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#1

 

One thing that digital assets investors cannot afford to fail at is access to cogent, accurate and timely information. Information drives the markets now and these information are readily available online. However, the information online are subject to easy adulteration, and/or subject to cheap sentiments or bias. that is why the source of the information is vital.

For those interested in Cryptocurrency, it is in the news that the US government has been giving the major Crypto Exchanges in the US (Coinbase and Binance) tough time. The largest is Coinbase, and the details of the crackdown, according to the BBC is as follows:
US sues Coinbase as crypto crackdown widens
The US has charged the biggest crypto trading platform in the country with operating illegally, widening its crackdown on the industry.

The Securities and Exchange Commission said Coinbase had acted as a broker, exchange and clearing agency for investments that are subject to SEC rules, without properly registering.

The regulator said that had allowed the firm to escape oversight, including guards against conflicts of interest.

Coinbase said the rules were not clear.

"The solution is legislation that allows fair rules for the road to be developed transparently and applied equally, not litigation," said Paul Grewal, Coinbase's chief legal officer. "In the meantime, we'll continue to operate our business as usual.",,,

The complaint against Coinbase comes a day after the SEC sued Binance, the world's largest crypto trading platform, accusing the firm of mishandling customer funds, artificially inflating trading volume on the site and taking steps to evade US regulation.

Authorities have pledged to police the industry more aggressively using existing rules, arguing that many crypto assets function like other investments which are subject to oversight.

Efforts to increase scrutiny have picked up after last year's dramatic collapse of another major exchange, FTX, which left many customers unable to access their funds.
Since middle last year, the heavy crackdown has left many investors and many interested ones to ask:

Is the US trying to kill crypto?

But like many other positive-minded people who know how important blockchain and cryptos are to the US and the future of finance itself the world over, I believe that the US is not trying to kill crypto, but rather trying to achieve at least 2 things:

1. More control and better regulation (ultimately possible protection to investors), and
2. More revenue in terms of taxes as there would be more transparency and reporting.

THE #BITCOINETF STORM HOPEFULS
In the middle of the crackdown which last almost throughout the just ended 2023, a solution seems to have been found in the rising applications for approval of the Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (BitcoinETF).
bitcoinetf.jpg
However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has rejected every application for a spot Bitcoin ETF—which offers direct exposure to direct exposure that tracks Bitcon’s real-time price, rather than through futures contracts. The SEC has repeatedly cited the potential for market manipulation among cryptocurrency traders among its concerns.

In 2023 August, the agency said it needed more time to evaluate several spot Bitcoin ETF applications, including those of BlackRock, Wisdom Tree Funds, Invesco and Galaxy Digital, and Valkyrie Funds. In September, the SEC also made separate announcements for BlackRock, Bitwise, Invesco Galaxy Digital, and Valkyrie applications, as well as for GlobalX and Ark/21Shares ETF, once again delaying the decision.

Bitcoin ETFs
Exchange-traded funds that track the value of Bitcoin and trade on traditional market exchanges.
POSITIVE SIGNS EARLY 2024?
Now, as 2024 rolls in, Bitcoin price seems to be on positive run due to speculations of imminent approval of the #BitcoinETF applications, especially that of single-out BlackRock which many claim has positive ties to the Biden administration.

However, the modus operandi of the approval terms remain unclear. Many are speculating this could ruin Bitcoin while most are hopeful Bitcoin hodlers be ready for an imminent Bull Run following the approval.

One thing I could say is that it is slippery grounds. Care is needed. many exchanges keep preaching the need to continue hodling, while many preach the need to even buy more.

IMMINENT APPROVAL? IS THAT TRUE?
According to CNBC, Spot bitcoin ETF approval may be coming in January 2024, experts say. Here’s what it means for investors.

- Investors await approval for the first U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, which would be a milestone for cryptocurrency investors.
- Discussions between the Securities and Exchange Commission and asset managers with pending spot bitcoin ETF applications have advanced.
- Still, bitcoin “remains an extremely volatile and speculative asset,”
The price of bitcoin
has surged in 2023 as investors await approval for the first U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, which would be a milestone for cryptocurrency investors, experts say.

In early December, the digital currency topped $44,000 for the first time since April 2022, and year-to-date gains were above 160%, as of Dec. 21, mostly fueled by optimism for a spot bitcoin ETF.

Meanwhile, discussions between the Securities and Exchange Commission and asset managers hoping to list bitcoin ETFs have advanced to technical details, signaling to some experts that an approval could be imminent.

More than a dozen firms — including BlackRock
, WisdomTree, Valkyrie and others — are waiting for the green light from the SEC, which could come in early January.

Also, as reported by REUTERS, SEC tells spot bitcoin ETF hopefuls to make final changes by year-end -- Sources
Dec 22 (Reuters) - U.S. SEC officials met on Thursday with representatives of at least seven companies hoping to launch exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to spot bitcoin early in 2024, and told at least two to submit final changes by the end of next week, according to public memos and two people familiar with the discussions.

Among those holding discussions with the Securities and Exchange Commission were representatives from BlackRock (BLK.N) and Grayscale Investments, as well as ARK Investments and 21 Shares.

The SEC is due to decide whether to approve or reject the joint proposal from ARK and 21 Shares by Jan. 10. Most issuers expect the SEC will likely give the green light to several applications at the same time in the days leading up to that deadline.

Executives from two of the firms that met with regulators -- speaking on background because of the confidential nature of the discussions -- said the SEC set a deadline for final updates to their filings of Dec. 29. Regulators told attendees at the meetings that any issuer that doesn't meet that deadline will not be part of a first wave of potential spot bitcoin ETF approvals in early January, both executives said.

The Dec. 29 deadline was first reported by Fox Business.

Representatives of the exchanges on which the new products might trade, including Nasdaq and Cboe, as well as lawyers for the issuers, also attended the meetings, according to meeting memos.

The SEC has rejected multiple applications to launch spot bitcoin ETFs in recent years, arguing that the cryptocurrency market is vulnerable to manipulation. The only cryptocurrency ETFs the agency has approved are tied to bitcoin and ethereum futures contracts that trade on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

In recent months, however, there have been increasing signs that regulators are prepared to sign off on at least some of the 13 proposed spot bitcoin ETFs. Some say the catalyst was a federal appeals court decision in August that the SEC erred in rejecting Grayscale's proposed conversion of its trust into an ETF.

The two executives who participated in Thursday's meetings with SEC officials said the agency indicated it could grant approval in the first few business days of 2024. Regulators would do so by informing issuers directly of what date their request to launch the ETF would be "effective;" each proposed ETF could be rolled out on that date.

An SEC spokesperson said the agency does not comment on individual filings.

A number of issuers have made changes to the technical details of their ETF proposals in recent days. Both BlackRock and ARK updated their filings earlier this week to allow cash redemptions, a change requested by regulators, according to people familiar with the matter.

Any final alterations likely would include details of fees. ARK and 21 Shares are the only issuers to have disclosed the fee they propose to levy on their joint ETF, at 0.80%.

Final updates also would include information about the sums that issuers plan to use to "seed" the new ETFs. These are likely to be relatively small amounts, according to those involved in the discussions, but to increase substantially once the ETFs have begun trading. These "seeds" provide capital required for marketmakers to ensure that the initial market for new ETFs is liquid.
What are we playing with here?
Well, like I stated earlier, these are slippery grounds. But what do you think?
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Greatness
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#2

 

Expecting a massive pump this year.

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exBanker
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#3

 

Greatness wrote: ↑January 2nd, 2024, 7:56 pm Expecting a massive pump this year.
That is the point I personally want to understand. Are we sure of a pump? A bull run? Are we 100% sure? Some are talking about halving.

I'm confused, really since last year.

The tightened regulation and call for openness in the market in the largest exchange platforms to the US SEC (Binance and Coinbase) will have real impacts on price movement of BTC.

Is this not putting the US government in the driver's seat of BTC price control?

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Jared
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#4

 

Here are some contradictory reactions online. While many are in support of holding on to their BTC, some recommend buying more. However, some look beyond the approval, which may not even come as fast as anticipated.
Some call the #bitcoinetf a crypto killer.

See below:
Screenshot_20240102_200715_Chrome.jpg
Screenshot_20240102_200750_Chrome.jpg

Financial Literacy is the possession of knowledge, skills and behavioral traits that help an individual make informed decisions regarding money. đź’°

Greatness
Answers: 2

#5

 

exBanker wrote: ↑January 2nd, 2024, 8:02 pm
Greatness wrote: ↑January 2nd, 2024, 7:56 pm Expecting a massive pump this year.
That is the point I personally want to understand. Are we sure of a pump? A bull run? Are we 100% sure? Some are talking about halving.

I'm confused, really since last year.

The tightened regulation and call for openness in the market in the largest exchange platforms to the US SEC (Binance and Coinbase) will have real impacts on price movement of BTC.

Is this not putting the US government in the driver's seat of BTC price control?
Truth be told, a pump in Bitcoin will make most alt coins follow suit, which we can also term as a bullrun.

Bitcoin halving and a broadened global crypto education and adoption may likely increase the demand from investors to buy into it, leading to a significant increase in price.

Plans to regulate crypto is not in sight, crypto doesn't want any government to control prices, but we can't also play down the influence of the US in the global economy of things.

Added after 9 minutes 38 seconds:
Jared wrote: ↑January 2nd, 2024, 8:11 pm Here are some contradictory reactions online. While many are in support of holding on to their BTC, some recommend buying more. However, some look beyond the approval, which may not even come as fast as anticipated.
Some call the #bitcoinetf a crypto killer.

See below:
We can only hope it has a positive impact on the crypto market.

All in all, high demand is what will greatly influence the price of Bitcoin.

Ernest
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#6

 

Bitcoin will do better this year

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Jared
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#7

 

Please guys, share this topic with all your friends who would love to debate or discuss this topic. It's hot and we need answers.

There's even a prophecy on global financial crash incoming soin. :laughs:
Financial Literacy is the possession of knowledge, skills and behavioral traits that help an individual make informed decisions regarding money. đź’°

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YoungA
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#8

 

exBanker wrote: ↑January 2nd, 2024, 8:02 pm
Greatness wrote: ↑January 2nd, 2024, 7:56 pm Expecting a massive pump this year.
That is the point I personally want to understand. Are we sure of a pump? A bull run? Are we 100% sure? Some are talking about halving.

I'm confused, really since last year.

The tightened regulation and call for openness in the market in the largest exchange platforms to the US SEC (Binance and Coinbase) will have real impacts on price movement of BTC.

Is this not putting the US government in the driver's seat of BTC price control?
I go with your view and query Sir. I see this as a form of US control of BTC transactions and their profitable stand from taxes payable to them from the control of BTC

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Jared
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#9

 

YoungA wrote: ↑January 2nd, 2024, 11:09 pm I go with your view and query Sir. I see this as a form of US control of BTC transactions and their profitable stand from taxes payable to them from the control of BTC
Let's not forget, that with tighter government grip and control of the crypto BTC, the whole essence of DeFI is being forfeited.

At this rate, BTC will fall of the Defi radar. I'm afraid.

No anonymity or core decentralisation anymore.
Financial Literacy is the possession of knowledge, skills and behavioral traits that help an individual make informed decisions regarding money. đź’°

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Kenyboy
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#10

 

Why does the US want to control everything and everyone? So now they are coming after coinbase, the question is will this lead to significant increase or drop in the price of BTC. It will surely make an impact on BTC

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Jared
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#11

 

Kenyboy wrote: ↑January 3rd, 2024, 9:29 am Why does the US want to control everything and everyone? So now they are coming after coinbase, the question is will this lead to significant increase or drop in the price of BTC. It will surely make an impact on BTC
Truth be told, there's high likelihood that if the #BitcoinETF is approved on friendly terms, a price rally of the Bitcoin will be seen. How long this will last is what cannot be determined.

However, if we are to choose between the initial crackdown and the oversight of BTC via the ETF, I feel the ETF approval is a better signal for the crypto market.

In fact, $BTC rose to 2-year record high of about 45k USD due owing primarily to positive signal of the #ETF approval.

Just that there's more to the approval especially in the medium to long term that crypto lovers must not overlook.

I say that again: the medium to long term impacts. :thinking:
Financial Literacy is the possession of knowledge, skills and behavioral traits that help an individual make informed decisions regarding money. đź’°

Ernest
Answers: 0

#12

 

Jared wrote: ↑January 2nd, 2024, 10:06 pm Please guys, share this topic with all your friends who would love to debate or discuss this topic. It's hot and we need answers.

There's even a prophecy on global financial crash incoming soin. :laughs:
this will be massive

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